Selection Bias in Validation Studies of Academic Performance

This article shows how admission and enrollment processes affect the interpretation of simple validation studies of academic performance. In a competitive market for students, optimal behavior of admissions committees and applicants drives the simple correlation between test scores and performance toward zero, regardless of the relationship in the population of prospective students. Data from our university's MBA program support the prediction that applicants exhibit a higher correlation between test scores and undergraduate GPAs than do current students. This suggests that standard validation studies will understate the importance of GMAT scores in predicting performance of potential MBA students.

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	McGarvey, Mary G Associate Professor of Economics Expertise: Econometrics Applied Econometrics Public Policy Analysis Economics CBA 351 P.O. Box 880489 University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln, NE 68588-0489, USA Phone: (402) 472-9415 Fax: (402) 472-9700 mmcgarvey1@unl.edu	McGarvey, Mary G	Economics
	Cushing, Matthew J Professor of Economics Expertise: Monetary Policy Public Finance Econometrics Economics CBA 352 P.O. Box 880489 University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln, NE 68588-0489, USA Phone: (402) 472-2323 Fax: (402) 472-9700 mcushing1@unl.edu	Cushing, Matthew J	Economics